Tuesday, July 29, 2014

July 29, 2014 Sports Picks

I've been struggling a little bit but the games haven't been easy to predict lately.  Tonight I hope to turn things around.  Here are my picks today:

Nationals vs. Marlins under 7 $110 to win $100
- Henderson Alvarez is having a really good season.  He has a 2.62 ERA on the season and has pitched in a lot of games that ended under 7.  He has a 1.64 ERA at home and a 2.48 ERA in night games.  In his last start against Washington he gave up just five hits and no runs in five innings.  Stephen Strasburg hasn't had a great season but has a 3.67 ERA this season and 3.58 ERA over the last 30 days.  I really wanted to take the Marlins in this one based on the pitching stats but I just can't bet against Stasburg. 

Giants ML -115 $230 to win $200
- The Giants have lost five straight and Pittsburgh has won two straight and seven of their last ten games but Giants are only two games back in the division and won't lose every game the rest of the season.  Its call regression to the mean.  San Fran needs and win and what better time to do it than tonight!  Tim Hudson is having a great season.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the season, 2.76 ERA over the last 30 days and 1.97 ERA in night games.  Liriano has struggled all year.  He is just 2-7 with a 4.18 ERA.  He has been pitching well over his last two starts so could pull a great performance but he has really struggled against San Fran in his career (7.20 ERA).  I would consider the under 6.5 (EVEN) as well.

Tigers ML -160 $160 to win $100
- Detroit has a big pitching advantage with Sanchez vs. Quintana.  These pitchers have pretty even stats this year but I like getting Detroit at only -160 with one of the best pitchers in the game going at home. 

A's -210 $420 to win $200
- Oakland fought hard last night but came up short.  Tonight they have a huge edge in the pitching and hitting departments.  Samardzjia has a 2.80 ERA on the season.  Houston's Feldman has struggled at home this year with a 5.37 ERA.  He has a 6.34 ERA against Oakland in this career.  He just pitched against the A's on July 24th and gave up nine hits and six runs in five innings in a 13-1 loss.  The RL at -135 looks pretty attractive as well.


Monday, July 28, 2014

July 28, 2014 Sports Picks

I have a few picks for tonight.  I'm going with these tonight:

Rockies vs. Cubs over 7.5 $165 to win $150
- The wind is blowing in at around 10mph but I don't think this will affect the over/under too much tonight.  Both pitchers are inexperienced and have ERA's of 5.00 and 7.20. 

Rangers -155 $155 to win $100
- Yu Darish is pitching and the Rangers need a win. 

Brewers +126 $100 to win $126
- Lohse is having another good year and he is 11-4 with a 3.07 ERA.  He has a 2.92 career ERA against the Rays.  Jake Odorizzi is just 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA. 


Friday, July 25, 2014

July 25, 2014 Sports Picks

I took most of the week off but I'll be posting a few picks this weekend.  For tonight I am going with these:

Nationals vs. Reds under 7.5 -120 $240 to win $200
- Both teams have struggled to score runs this year and both pitchers have pitched very well this year.  Roark is 9-6 with a 2.91 ERA.  Simon is 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA. The wind is not a factor.  This being a National league game I am going with the under.

Dbacks ML -120 $180 to win $150
- Kendrick has a 6.89 ERA over the past 30 days.  He has a 5.45 ERA against Arizona.  Philly is just 3-7 over their last ten games.  Wade Miley is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA over the past 30 days.  He is pitching outstanding right now and has a 2.25 career ERA against Philly and a 2.85 ERA on the road.  Arizona is 6-4 over there last ten games.

Mariners RL +110 $200 to win $220
- King Felix is on the mound and he is having a great season.  He is 11-2 with a 2.02 ERA.  He has a 2.17 ERA at home and a 1.16 ERA over the past 30 days.  For the O's, Gausman has a 5.59 ERA over the past 30 days.  He's had some good starts and some bad starts so we'll see how he does tonight.  I'll back the AL's best pitcher. 


Monday, July 21, 2014

July 20, 2014 Sports Picks

I took yesterday off.  I was at a wedding all day.  Saturday I didn't fare so well going 0-3 for -698.  Overall I am now 12-8-2 for +$333.  For tonight, I'm going with these games:

Pirates ML -105 $210 to win $200
- Pittsburgh has been playing good ball winning there games in a row.  Edison Volquez is locked in right now.  He is 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA over the last 30 days.  For the Dodgers, RYU has just a 4.09 ERA over the last 30 days.  Pittsburgh is very good at home going 32-20 on the season.

Marlins vs. Braves under 7 -105 $105 to win $100
- Julio Teheran loves pitching at home.  He has a 1.23 ERA this year at home.  He as a career 2.50 ERA against Miami.  For the Marlins, Koehler has had his ups and down this year but has a 3.99 ERA on the season and a 3.62 career ERA against Atlanta.

Yankees -165 $330 to win $200
- For the Yanks, Shane Greene has been outstanding in his two starts this season going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA.  In his last game he pitched 7.1 innings giving up just four hits and no runs and striking out nine. And this was against a very good Baltimore team.  NY won three straight.  Texas is just 1-9 over their last ten games.  They are really struggling right now.  Their starting pitcher, Miles Mikolas has a 10.05 ERA on the season.  This seems like a no brainer.

I may post a few more later games shortly.


Saturday, July 19, 2014

July 18, 2014 Sports Picks

Yesterday was going just fine until Josh Donaldson hit a 3 run homerun in the bottom of the ninth to help the A's win 5-4.  That homerun contributed to me going 1-2-1 for -$235.  It happens in this profession.  Just need to pick myself up!  Overall, I am 12-5-2 for +$1,031.

For today, here are my picks:

Giants vs. Marlins under 7.5 -120 $240 to win $200
- Tim Hudson is having another great year with a 2.87 ERA.  He has struggled a bit over the last 30 days but has a 2.95 career ERA against Miami, 2.52 ERA on the road and 2.06 ERA in night games.  On the other side, Henderson Alvarez has a 2.63 ERA on the season and three complete games.  He has really good numbers over the past 30 days (3-1 with a 2.81 ERA).  He has a home ERA of just 1.56. 

 Tigers G2 ML -175 $350 to win $200
- Detroit has a huge pitching edge in this game with Max Scherzer vs. Zach McAllister.  Scherzer is 11-3 with a 3.35 ERA on the season and McAllister is just 3-5 with a 3-5 5.63 ERA.  Scherzer has been really hot lately and has just a 1.61 ERA over the last 30 days.  McAllister has a 5.02 career ERA against Detroit and a 6.46 ERA on the road.

Astros ML -108 $108 to win $100
- Hector Noesi pitches for the White Sox and he is not having a good season.  He has a 3-7 record with a 5.26 ERA.  He has a 7.27 ERA against Houston, a 5.15 ERA at home and a 4.63 ERA in night games.  For the Astros, Dallas Keuchel is having a very good season going 9-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 3 complete games.  In his last game against the White Sox he pitched 6.1 innings and gave up just four hits and two runs in the win.  He has struggled a bit over the last 30 days so keep that in mind. 


Friday, July 18, 2014

July 17, 2014 Sports Picks

After the All Star break I am back.  And I promise to start getting these picks in earlier in the day.  It was just a really busy day.  But here are the games I'm going with today:

Tigers -160 $320 to win $200
- Detroit is home where they weren't as good (25-22) but Cleveland has been bad on the road (18-28).  Sanchez is a big game pitcher and one of the best in the league in my opinion.  He has a 2.34 career ERA against Cleveland and has a 2.48 ERA in night games.  Bauer is bad on the road with a 5.48 ERA. He also has a 4.38 career ERA against Detroit and a 4.19 ERA in night games.  Go with Detroit in this one.

A's vs. O's under 7.5 $115 to win $100
- Chris Tillman has been pitching very well of late with a 2.36 ERA over his last 30 days.  He also boasts a 1.96 career ERA against Oakland.  He hasn't pitched well on the road or in night games so take that into account but those are minor stats.  For Oakland, Jeff Samardzija has pitched great this year (2.78 ERA).  He has pitched well in the AL so far giving up just four runs in 15 innings.  He has a 2.61 ERA in night games. 

Mariners vs. Angels under 7.5 -120 $240 to win $200
- This pitching match-up is hard to ignore.  Weaver has been on fire lately.  He posts a 2.73 ERA over the last 30 days.  He pitches really well at home (2.67 ERA).  Iwakuma has a 2.98 ERA on the season.  Over his last three starts he has given up just three runs over 21.2 innings.  Oh, and he also has a career 1.49 ERA against the Angels.   

Cubs vs. Dbacks over 9 -105 $210 to win $200
- Cahill has a 1-6 record with a 5.66 ERA.  He hasn't pitched since June 6.  Jackson has a 5-10 record with a 5.64 ERA.  Over the last 30 days he has a 7.67 ERA.  This game is being played in a hitter's park.  Take the over with confidence. 


Monday, July 14, 2014

July 14, 2014 Sports Picks

No picks again today as it's the home run derby.  I did put a few wagers on the matchups, NL winning and Stanton or Cespedes to win but there really isn't much analysis needed in this one.  I was 3-0 on Saturday for +416.  Overall I am now 11-3-1 for +$1,366.