July 29, 2014 Sports Picks

I've been struggling a little bit but the games haven't been easy to predict lately.  Tonight I hope to turn things around.  Here are my picks today:

Nationals vs. Marlins under 7 $110 to win $100
- Henderson Alvarez is having a really good season.  He has a 2.62 ERA on the season and has pitched in a lot of games that ended under 7.  He has a 1.64 ERA at home and a 2.48 ERA in night games.  In his last start against Washington he gave up just five hits and no runs in five innings.  Stephen Strasburg hasn't had a great season but has a 3.67 ERA this season and 3.58 ERA over the last 30 days.  I really wanted to take the Marlins in this one based on the pitching stats but I just can't bet against Stasburg. 

Giants ML -115 $230 to win $200
- The Giants have lost five straight and Pittsburgh has won two straight and seven of their last ten games but Giants are only two games back in the division and won't lose every game the rest of the season.  Its call regression to the mean.  San Fran needs and win and what better time to do it than tonight!  Tim Hudson is having a great season.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the season, 2.76 ERA over the last 30 days and 1.97 ERA in night games.  Liriano has struggled all year.  He is just 2-7 with a 4.18 ERA.  He has been pitching well over his last two starts so could pull a great performance but he has really struggled against San Fran in his career (7.20 ERA).  I would consider the under 6.5 (EVEN) as well.

Tigers ML -160 $160 to win $100
- Detroit has a big pitching advantage with Sanchez vs. Quintana.  These pitchers have pretty even stats this year but I like getting Detroit at only -160 with one of the best pitchers in the game going at home. 

A's -210 $420 to win $200
- Oakland fought hard last night but came up short.  Tonight they have a huge edge in the pitching and hitting departments.  Samardzjia has a 2.80 ERA on the season.  Houston's Feldman has struggled at home this year with a 5.37 ERA.  He has a 6.34 ERA against Oakland in this career.  He just pitched against the A's on July 24th and gave up nine hits and six runs in five innings in a 13-1 loss.  The RL at -135 looks pretty attractive as well.

Jonny