Friday, November 22, 2013

November 23, 2013 Sports Picks

Yesterday I went for 3-2 for +200.  I love Saturdays.  Here are my picks:

Mich St / Duke Parlay $200 to win $168
- Michigan St has played great all year.  Last week they beat a decent Nebraska team on the road by 13.  Northwestern is really bad.  They lost to a bad Michigan team last week and they had so much trouble moving the ball.  They have a decent defense but they've lost six in a row.  This should be an easy win for Michigan St.  Duke is 8-2 on the year and they are legit.  They are coming off a very impressive win against Miami.  Wake Forest is not very good.  They are coming off three losses in a row including a 13-0 loss to Syracuse and 59-3 loss at home against FL St.  

Mich St vs. NW under 41 $110 to win $100
- Michigan St has a really good defense and Northwestern's offense is pathetic.  Northwestern has a good defense so they should be able to limit the scoring of Michigan St.  The game will probably be something like 27-10 Michigan St. 

Houston -3 $110 to win $100
- I really like Houston.  They are 7-3 on the season and this is a big game for them. Their three losses came against three very good teams (BYU, UCF, and Louisville).  All of those games were close.  Cincinnati is 8-2 but they really haven't played anyone.  All of there wins are against really bad teams and their two losses are also against really bad teams.  This is a hard one to predict but I strongly believe Houston wins this one.  

Louisville -23 $165 to win $150
- Louisville is 9-1 on the year and they need a big win on Saturday to improve their bowl position.  This is likely to be a low scoring game as Memphis doesn't have an offense.  Bridewater needs to make a statement in this game and I think he come through in a 31-3 win.  

Iowa / Mich under 45.5 $110 to win $100
- Michigan has a really good defense but a really bad offense.  This is a good recipe for a low scoring game.  I have a good feeling that Iowa will win this game but no way the total gets over 45. 

OH St -34.5 $110 to win $100
- Ohio St has been blowing teams out all year.  They are home where they play especially well.  Indiana is decent but they don't play defense and have struggled against good teams.  They just lost 51-3 against Wisconsin.

Gophers +17 $110 to win $100
- MN is 8-2 and they are home playing Wisconsin who are also 8-2.  I know the Gophers haven't played the same competition as Wisconsin but this spread is pretty high for a hot team playing at home.  This is a tough one as Wisconsin has the ability to blow MN out but the Gophers have played well at home this year and I think they give the Badgers a run for their money and could even pull the upset.  But I'll be happy if they keep it within 17.

Wyoming / Utah St parlay $200 to win $145
- I'm taking Wyoming because they are home playing against the 0-10 Hawaii.   Hawaii is really bad on the road and Wyoming has won some games this year.  Utah St is home and they have a very strong defense which should be able to slow down Colorado St.  I would probably take Colorado St with the points (+11) but I think UT St wins the game.

TX A&M +4.5 $165 to win $150
- This is the second best game of the day.  A&M is fun to watch and they are very hard to stop on offense.  Johnny Football is the man and even really good defenses have trouble with him (see Alabama).  The question is: can TX A&M's defense stop LSU?  I would say probably not too often but who cares?  This is going to be a high scoring close game.  I'm not sure who will win but I think TX A&M can at least keep it within a FG.  

Oregon -19 $165 to win $150
- This is a perfect spot for Oregon to get back on track.  Arizona is not very good.  Over their last three games they beat a bad Cal team by 5 then lost at home to UCLA and lost at home to Washington St.  Oregon feasts off teams like this and I say they win by at least 28.  

BYU $110 to win $100
- If you haven't noticed, BYU is really good this year.  They have a very good offense led by their QB and they can play solid defense.  Notre Dame is just flat out bad this year.  In their last home game they beat Navy by just four points and two weeks ago they lost to a really bad Pitt team. 

AZ St -2 $165 to win $150
- I love Arizona St this year.  They are fighting for a Pac Ten South title and need this win.  They have a very good offense and their defense has been playing better.  They are much better at home so take that into account.  UCLA has had a pretty good season and they are coming off an impressive home win against Washington but I still have some concerns with their QB play and with their defense.  I think AZ ST can take advantage of any mistakes made by the Bruins.

USC -22.5 $165 to win $150
- USC is very good this year.  They are coming off a great win against Stanford.  This week they get to play a very bad Colorado team.  Colorado has been getting blown out a lot this season and Saturday's game shouldn't be an exception.

OK St +8.5 $220 to win $200
- This is the game of the night.  I'm not sure either team will stop the others offense.  Oklahoma St has looked very good over the second half of the season.  This spread really shouldn't be more than 6.5 or 7 so getting 8.5 is a gift.  I think this is a 7 point game either way because we won't see any FGs.

Baylor vs. Ok St over 78 $165 to win $150
- There will be a lot of points scored in this one.  Baylor averages 62 and OK St averages 40.

Missouri -140 $280 to win $200
- Missouri is one of the best teams in all of college football so why are they only 3 point favorites?  James Franklin will be back so that makes Missouri even stronger.  They have a very good defense and should be able to shut down Mississippi's offense.  

Added these this morning:

Pitt / Syracuse under 49.5 $165 to win $150
- Syracuse has a very good defense when they play sub par teams as proven in their 20-3 win vs. MD two weeks ago and there 13-0 win vs. Wake Forest three weeks ago.  They also don't have much of an offense.  Pitt is a little more inconsistent.  Some weeks they score and other weeks they don't score.  

Gophers +27 / IA +3.5 / Colo St +21.5 10 pt teaser -130 $200 to win $154
- I like the Gophers to keep this game close.  Temps are very cold today in MN.  I think Iowa will win against Michigan at home.  They are very good at home with the home field advantage.  And like I said previously I like Colorado St to cover so getting 21.5 points is a lock.

Gophers over 40 / A&M over 63.5 / MIA under 68 10 pt teaser -130 $260 to win $200
- Wisconsin could score 40 by themselves in this game but there's no way this is a defensive slug-fest.  I would say this game ends around 27-24 Wisconsin.  TX A&M can't be stopped on offense but their defense will have trouble slowing down LSU so this game easily goes over 64.  Miami vs. Virginia seems like an easy under.  Miami has struggled a bit on defense but Virginia has struggled on offense as well.  I can't see this game going over 55.

Baylor Over 68.5 / Oregon over 57.5 / BYU under 63.5 10 pt teaser -130 $260 to win $200

Jonny

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