Sunday, December 8, 2013

December 8, 2013 Sports Picks

Yesterday I went 3-4 for -130.  Week 14 in in the NFL is really when you need to take a close look at the weather.  There will be a lot of snow out there today and some cold weather.  I usually side more towards lower scoring games when the weather gets cold.  Here are my plays today:

Patriots / Ravens Parlay $400 to win $231
- I have struggled on my two team parlays this year but I couldn't pass up doing it again this week.  New England has been clicking on offense since Gronk came back and they have so many weapons.  The weather looks fine in Boston so that won't be a factor in the passing game.  New England is a perfect 6-0 at home this year.  Cleveland is 1-4 on the road and they have lost three straight.  Weeden is set up to struggle today.  I also think the Ravens will win today.  They are 5-1 at home and they need this win badly to keep their playoff hopes alive.  MN is 0-5 on the road and they have struggled all year.  Peterson ran the best I've seen him run all year last week but he can't win this game by himself. 

Patriots / Bengals Parlay $300 to win $180
- I think the Bengals will win this game easily.  They went into San Diego last week and won that game plus they are 5-0 at home.  Indianapolis just isn't the same without Reggie Wayne and they are the worst 8-4 team I have ever seen.  They lost 11-40 at Arizona two weeks ago and 38-8 at home against the Rams four weeks ago.  There only wins since Wayne went out were against Houston (by 3) and Tennessee twice.

Saints -3 -110 $220 to win $200
- I love the Saints at home against anyone.  They are a perfect 6-0 at home.  They should be getting about 7 points for that home field advantage which means the oddsmakers believe Carolina is 4 points better than New Orleans.  I think these teams would be even playing on a neutral field so we are getting some value here. 

Saints +7 / Falcons +13 / Giants +14 10 pt teaser $200 to win $154
-Green Bay is not very good without Aaron Rodgers and the Falcons are playing better of late.  Green Bay hasn't won a game since Rodgers has been out and they got smoked last week 40-10 against the Lions.  They shouldn't be favored against anyone.  Atlanta is coming off a win against Buffalo where they put up 34 points.  I like the Giants to keep the game close at San Diego.  The Giants are playing good football and after losing their first 6 games they are now 5-7 on the season.  San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games. 

Eagles -3 -105 $105 to win $100
- Philly is 4-0 over their last 4 games and their QB is playing great ball right now.  Foles has 19 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  Detroit is playing well but they are just 3-3 on the road.  There is snow in the forecast and they should benefit the Eagles. 

Steelers -3 $115 to win $100
- Pittsburgh is touch to beat at home this time of year.  They are playing really good football right now and there is snow in the forecast.  Both teams are evenly matched but Miami doesn't play well in cold weather and snow so the home field advantage is huge in this game. 

Packers under 55 / Eagles under 64 / Saints over 36 10 pt teaser $130 to win $100
- Green Bay hasn't been able to have sucess passing so they will lean on the running game.  They will try to milk clock and keep this game low scoring.  Plus the temps are very cold in Green Bay.  There is snow in the forecast in Philadelphia so 64 points should be hard to obtain and New Orleans always ups up a lot of points at home so that game will easily go over 36.

Broncos -13 $110 to win $100
- Small bet here as Manning doesn't play well in the cold but the Broncos should easily win this game.

Giants +4 $110 to win $100
- I really like the Giants to win or at least keep this game close.  They are hot right now and the Chargers are ice cold.

49ers -3 +105 $150 to win $158
- San Fran has been playing great lately.  They have Crabtree back and almost full strength and Seattle isn't as good on the road.  This should be a good game but I'll take the home team in this one.

Cardinals +2.5 / Under 48.5 7 pt teaser -140 $200 to win $143 
- Arizona is unstoppable at home where they are 5-1.  St. Louis is just 2-4 on the road.  Both teams play outstanding defense.

** Adding these for Sunday Night

Saints ML -165 $660 to win $400
Saints +3.5 / Over 40.5 6.5 teaser -130 $390 to win $300
- New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 at home this year.  They average 33 points and their average margin of victory has been 17 in home games.  In road games, Carolina lost to Buffalo and Arizona and they beat MN, Tampa, San Fran (by 1) and Miami (by 4) so they don't play nearly as well on the road.  This spread really should be at least 6.5. 

Jonny

No comments:

Post a Comment