After a +900 Day I took a small loss yesterday. My big loss was the Cardinals losing me $510. At least New England won. That game was ugly. Overall I went 6-4 for -175. I'm hoping for a good day today and here at my baseball picks:
Indians -135 $200 to win $133
- Danny Salazar has pitched very well for Cleveland. He has a 2.92 ERA on the season, 2.79 ERA on the road and 1.13 ERA in day games. For the White Sox, Santiago has been inconsistent and has a 4.82 ERA against the Indians in his career. He is also worse at home and in day games this year.
Pirates -1.5 +115 $150 to win $165
- This Pittsburgh team will definitely make the playoffs and they are playing their best ball right now. Morton has been really good over his last seven starts, other than his last start. He's dealing with a foot issue so the pitcher may change. For the Cubs, Arrieta has really struggled this year (5.49 ERA).
Pirates/Cubs over 7.5 -120 $180 to win $150
- My stronger play on this game ins on the over. Both starting pitchers are a mess right now and both teams can hit, especially the Pirates. With the run total only at 7.5 this seems easy.
Nationals -240 $240 to win $100
- Washington needs this win badly and Strasburg is pitching. Kendrick has struggled lately. Over his last ten starts he has given up more than 3 runs six times.
Reds -150 $300 to win $200
-Matt Latos has been super good. Over his last ten starts he has given up more than 2 runs only twice. The Reds need this win and will give it everything they have against the Brewers and Kyle Lohse. Lohse is coming off a start where he gave up 7 earned runs in five innings against the Cubs.
Dodgers -200 $200 to win $100
-Kershaw is pitching at home and only favored at -200. I can't pass on this opportunity. Kershaw has a 1.92 ERA on the season. He's outstanding against the Giants (1.32 career ERA) and at home (1.56 ERA). For the Giants, Bumgarner has been good but not great over his last seven starts. He gave up 3 earned runs in four of those starts. Not too bad but 3 runs given up tonight will make him a loser.
Orioles -120 $240 to win $200
- Baltimore needs this game if they are going to keep pace in the wild card race. Toronto is still dealing with a lot of injury concerns and Encarnacion probably won't play again tonight. The pitching matchup is pretty even and Baltimore has a big offensive advantage.
Cardinals -180 $360 to win $200
- I'm going back with St. Louis again tonight. I think they win tonight with their best pitcher going (Wainwright). Adam had two rough starts but came back to shut out the Pirates in his last starts. I think he made the right adjustments and will be fine tonight. Seattle isn't all that bad but they will be playing in a National League park and Iwakuma will have to hit. Hisashi hasn't pitched all that well over his last four starts, giving up 3 earned runs in three of those starts.
Jonny
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