Yesterday I had another up and down day but finished 9-7 for +165. I made much more on my NCAA picks and lost on my baseball picks yesterday. I'm kicking myself for betting on Uconn and Purdue. Those were big mistakes but lesson learned and it will only make me stronger in the future. I do want to congratulate Andy Petitte for a great career and finishing with a complete game win. Also, even though Wisconsin lost I think their coaching staff is very smart and managed that game very well. I see a lot of coaches making stupid decisions like going for two when one is the best move at the time. Why are some football coaches so stupid? Taking timeouts and going for two are some of the things I notice. These are simple things that coaches really should know what the best move is. One example is when Uconn scored a touchdown and were down 16 they decide to go for two. Why? I have no idea. It was in the 2nd quarter so getting it to 14 would have been nice but 15 would have worked just fine considering they would need to get two more touchdowns to tie. They failed on the two point conversion so remained down 16. To tie they would now need two touchdowns and two two point conversions. Either way, I was completely wrong on this game and will not bet for UConn the rest of the year. Their QB is complete garbage.
I feel really good about my picks on Sunday. I have a lot of my card so take note:
NFL:
Vikings +3 -115 $115 to win $100
- I'm doing this mainly for the entertainment value of it as I am a Vikings fan. I don't recommend the Vikings but I'm going with them mainly because Ponder is out. Cassel is much better than Ponder so we could see a much better showing from the Vikes today. Minnesota has all the right pieces in place (RB, WRs, TE, offense line, defense) but they are missing the most important position in QB. Please draft a QB this year!
Ravens -3 -115 $230 to win $200
- Baltimore completely dominated the Texans last week and this week they get to play a much weaker opponent in Buffalo. The Raven's defense should have another good game against Manuel and the Bills. Spiller will play but is not at 100%.
Ravens/Bills under 44 -110 $165 to win $150
- Baltimore has struggled offensively so far and their defense has played very well over the past two weeks. Buffalo has been involved in close and higher scoring games so far this year but they are going to have trouble moving the ball on Sunday. The Bills have a decent defense and should be able to limit the offensive production of the Ravens.
Bengals -200 $400 to win $200
- Last week I was thinking about which teams are standing out as the best teams in the NFL and two teams stood out to me. The Broncos (obviously), Seahawks and the Bengals. Cincinnati has been finding ways to win and is coming off a very impressive win against the Packers. Cleveland is one of the worst teams this year so I fully expect the Bengals to win this game.
Bengals/Browns under 42.5 -110 $220 to win $200
- Cleveland has a good defense but has struggled offensively. Cincinnati likes to control the clock and they also have a very good defense. This is more a hunch than anything as I don't think Cleveland can put up points in this game.
Colts / Broncos Parlay $400 to win $183
- Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL this year and the Colts are coming off a very impressive win against the 49ers. I love betting with Andrew Luck as he's a big game QB who should easily be able to win this game. I considered parlaying all my bets with the Broncos as I think they win this game easily. I've been saying this for a long time but Peyton Manning is the best QB in the NFL and probably the best QB of all time. Yes, I said it.
Seahawks -2.5 -110 $220 to win $200
- I understand the Seattle isn't as good on the road but they have a great team this year. They were very good last year and this year they are even better. Wilson could turn out to be one of the best QBs in the NFL and their defense is 2nd to none. I really like Houston but they are a mess right now. They were completely over matched last week against the Ravens. Seattle is much better than Baltimore.
Cardinals +4 (buy points) -175 $350 to win $200
- Arizona shouldn't be an underdog against Tampa Bay who are starting a new QB on Sunday. The Cardinals haven't played particularly well so far this year but they did beat a pretty good Detroit team two weeks ago and Tampa is probably the second worst team in the NFL, just ahead of Jacksonville. They are coming off a 23-3 loss against a sub par New England team.
Bears +13 / Giants +14.5 / Titans +6.5 10 pt teaser $250 to win $193
- I think all three of these teams could win and the teaser gives me a little cushion.
Titans -190 $380 to win $200
- Tennessee is much better than the Jets and I feel confident in this game. The Titans have a solid defense and a decent offense. The Jets are very inconsistent on offense and have a lot of holes on defense.
Titans/Jets under 41.5 -110 $220 to win $200
- Both teams have pretty good defenses and have struggled on offense. I really like the under in this game.
Dallas +8 / Oakland +13.5 / Denver -1 10 pt teaser $250 to win $193
- Dallas is much better than I thought they would be this year and this game is a toss up. Oakland is home and regardless of the QB they should be able to keep the game close against a below average Washington team who is 0-3. Denver is the best team in the NFL and they should have no trouble winning at home against Philly.
Broncos -9.5 (buy points) -150 $300 to win $200
- The Broncos are amazing so far this year. Peyton Manning is the best QB in the game and Philadelphia's defense is dreadful. I think Denver will put up 50 points in this game.
Broncos/Eagles over 58.5 -110 $110 to win $100
- Manning can't be stopped and Philly has a very fast paced offense. This is a big number but no way I'm passing on it.
MLB:
Rays -170 $170 to win $100
- Tampa needs this win and Moore has been very good. Moore is coming off a five inning, three hit shutout and has a 2.97 ERA in this career against Toronto and a 2.59 ERA on the road this year.
Indians -200 $200 to win $100
- Cleveland continues to win and Sunday is a huge game for them. They win and they are in the playoffs with home field advantage in the play in game. They have their Ace going today in Jimenez.
Rangers -220 $220 to win $100
- Texas needs to win this game and they have their best pitcher going in Darvish. Darvish is a big game pitcher and this game seems like a lock to me. Hopefully Texas' offense can put up a few runs.
Jonny
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