June 16 Picks

I had some big plays yesterday and those worked out (Cards 10 units, Rays 5 units, Bruins +1.5 7 units (increased).  I lost a few medium plays (CWS, Twins, NYY) but finished up pretty big on the day.

These are the games I like for Sunday:

Reds -190 6 Units
 - Cueto has been great all year but is making his first start since May 31.  He had a 1.93 ERA against the Brewers in 2012.  Braun is on the DL and Peralta has a 6.03 ERA.  I'm surprised the line isn't -250 or more. 

Cardinals -150 3 Units
 - After a 10 unit win yesterday I'll take my chances again Sunday.  Nolasco hasn't been good at home and that's not good considering he plays for Miami.  Lyons has been good on the road (2.79 ERA) and St. Louis has been really hot lately.  I see them winning this series before heading home. 

Tigers -155 2.5 Units
- Fister has been very consistent this year and has been pitching very well lately (both home and away).  PJ Walters has been good as well but is actually much better on the road and at night.  Go with the Tigers who have the pitching and hitting advantage on Sunday.

Tigers vs. Twins under 8.5 -110 1.5 Unit
 -  Like I said above both Fister and Walters have been very good.  Fister has been involved in a lot of low scoring games. 

Nationals -130 1 Unit
 - I really like Strasburg but I can only go one unit since he's just coming off the DL and I don't trust the Nationals offense. 

Dodgers vs. Pirates under 7 -105 1 Unit
 - This looks like a pitchers dual with Greinke vs. Cole. 

Rays vs. Royals over 8.5 -105 1 Units
- Wade Davis has a 6 ERA on the road and Hernandez has a 5.54 ERA in day games.  Offenses seem to be clicking.

White Sox -127 4 Units
 - I've lost two in a row betting the Sox but I try to avoid the sweep on Sunday.  Santiago has been pitching well on the road and Keuchel has been really bad at home (5.50 ERA) and in day games (7.71 ERA). 

Rangers -180 2 Units
 - Rangers have a huge pitching advantage but they have been on a bit of a losing streak.  I think Holland can do just enough to get the win on Sunday.

Mariners vs. A's under 7 -110 1.5 Units
 - Great pitchers dual on Sunday.  This seems like a no-brainer but crazy things can happen late in ball games so don't go crazy.

Braves -150 2 Units
 - Lincecum has been very inconsistent this year and for the most part bad.  Teheran has been pitching very well at home.  Braves find a way to win on Sunday night. 

Spurs +105 1 Unit
 - Spurs are really good at home and Parker should be back to full health.  No way I can do more than one unit however.  

Also, just a note on the Red Sox vs. O's game.  Lester is 14-1 in his career against the O's but hasn't been very good on the road this year (4.91 ERA).  Gonzalez hasn't been as good at home.  I was considering the over 9 but I see that both Lester and Gonzalez are much better in day games and both have good career numbers against each other's teams.  This is a no play for me. 

Jonny

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